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US Dollar Backs Off As Markets Brace for NFP, Rescue Plan Vote
October 3
2008 11:15 GMT
LONDON (Reuters) -- The US dollar pulled back against the Euro and the British Pound in overnight trading. Looming event risk is likely to continue weighing on the greenback as the US House of Representatives is set to vote on the US Treasury’s financial market rescue plan while expectations suggest the economy lost 105 thousand jobs in September. The Euro retraced higher in late overnight trading, regaining position above the 1.38 level. The next level of near-term resistance is found at 1.3982, with support at 1.3697. The Sterling also corrected some of the losses sustained in US hours, retaking the 1.77 mark. Resistance is seen at 1.7809, with support at 1.7548. The service sector shrank for a sixth consecutive month in September according to the AIG Performance of Service Index. The metric printed at 44.9, a slight improvement over last month's reading at 39.3, a 5-year low. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, allowing for the uptick. That said, the economy continues to face substantial headwinds both domestically and abroad, keeping the reading below the key 50 "boom-bust" level. Looking at trading in index swaps, the market is pricing in 150 basis points in additional monetary easing from the RBA over the next 12 months.
TD Securities Inflation ticked higher for the 12th consecutive month, printing at 4.5% in the year to September. The reading is unlikely to derail the Reserve Bank of Australia’s plan to aggressively cut interest rates in the coming months. Bank Governor Glenn Stevens has said that inflation will peak at 5% in the fourth quarter and has started easing rates under that assumption. The reading at 4.5% remains within those bounds, suggesting rate cuts remain on schedule for the time being.
Failed Bail-Out Vote, Busy Calendar Spell Forex Volatility
October
1
2008 10:30 GMT
LONDON (Reuters) --The US Dollar sharply sold off in the minutes following the American legislature’s rejection of a $700bn financial rescue plan. The currency found itself fighting off the bears to rally in Asian trading. Given the reaction by the US market, Tokyo and Hong Kong equities indices fell less than many had originally anticipated. Forex traders may see additional volatility through European trading as major numbers such as the German Unemployment Rate and Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index estimates are released. Failure of the US Government to pass the financial rescue plan was met by sharp volatility in the forex market, driving the Euro to a high of 1.4563 from a low of 1.4349 against the US Dollar in the minutes immediately following the legislation’s rejection. Sterling also shot up by 140 pips to a high of 1.8180 as the news quickly gyrated asset markets around the world. The day’s trading saw both pairs fall back below the levels seen prior to the news. EURUSD and GBPUSD now find themselves hugging Fibonacci support at 1.4322 and 1.8025, respectively. After having fallen to a record low in July, the UK GFK Consumer Confidence Survey rose for a second straight month in September to -32. The sentiment indicator, which asks consumers and employers about their future expectations for the UK economy, continued to display the affect of falling fuel prices on the pocket books of the British. When questioned about their Climate for Major Purchases, people increased their expectations by the most since the start of 2007. Retail Sales rose in the 12 months through August by 3.3%, beating forecasts of a -0.5% decline in the metric for the month.
Risk aversion boosts gold,
platinum slips
September 30
2008 13:45 GMT
LONDON (Reuters) --Gold erased losses and climbed higher on Friday, as increased risk-aversion boosted the metal's safe-haven appeal and the dollar trimmed gains against the euro. The market moved in erratic trade, as investors fretted over the future of a key $700 billion U.S. bailout plan to rescue the banking system after talks at the White House broke down in acrimony. Platinum tumbled almost 4 percent and palladium dropped 2.4 percent on data showing a decline in car sales, highlighting poor demand prospects for the metal, widely used as a component in automotive catalytic converters. Spot gold was up at $883.10/885.10 per ounce by 1229 GMT, a rise of $7.8, or 0.85 percent, compared with the previous nominal close of $875.70. Earlier, it fell as low as $866.20 an ounce. "The main driver right now is the dollar, but also risk aversion," said analyst Barbara Lambrecht at Commerzbank in Germany. The euro climbed to around 1.4648 against the dollar, after trading around $1.4580 earlier in the session. The dollar also fell 1 percent against the Japanese yen. U.S. congressional leaders will try again on Friday to save the bank bailout plan. Hopes for a speedy deal dimmed when a group of conservative Republican lawmakers proposed an alternative plan on Thursday.
Gold climbs
as dollar slides, oil jumps
September 23
2008 11:30 GMT
LONDON (Reuters) --Gold rose almost 2 percent on Friday, recovering from earlier losses, as the dollar slipped sharply versus the euro and oil rallied more than $7 a barrel. Gold slipped more than 3 percent earlier in the session after the U.S. government said pledged $50 billion to guarantee money-market mutual funds, curbed short-selling and crafted a sweeping plan to mop up toxic mortgage debt, sending global stock markets soaring. However, a turnaround in the foreign exchange markets that sent the euro to session highs against the dollar, coupled with a sharp rise in the oil price, helped the metal rally to a day high of $868.65 per ounce. At New York's last quote of 2:25 p.m. EDT (1825 GMT), spot gold was at $862.20/866.20, against $847.25 an ounce at the nominal New York close on Thursday.
A weaker dollar typically benefits gold, which is often bought as a currency hedge. "The impact of the plan has been for the dollar to weaken, and essentially that has been the catalyst for a move up in all markets," said Calyon analyst Robin Bhar. "Equities are exploding, base metals are higher and gold as well has taken part." Sharply higher global markets also prompted investors to switch funds to the equities from the commodity sector. Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management, said that while the U.S. government bailout plan was highly inflationary, it would take gold traders time to sift through the potential implications of the various proposals. U.S. gold contract for December delivery GCZ8 settled down $32.30, or 3.6 percent, at $864.70 an ounce on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold has benefited from a wave of risk aversion that has hit the markets this week after U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy protection on Monday.
Financial havoc wallops US
dollar and stocks
September 19
2008 12:00 GMT
LONDON (Reuters) --Stocks and the U.S. dollar fell sharply on Monday after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy protection, sending safe-haven Treasury debt and gold prices soaring as the financial system bent under severe pressure. U.S. stock market futures were down around 3 percent, pointing to sharply lower open, while major European markets were set for falls of between 3.5 to 4 percent STXEc1 FDXc1 FCEc1. Rapid-fire developments on Wall Street, only a week after the U.S. government bailed out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, left some analysts literally speechless and sent shockwaves through almost every asset class. The dollar plunged 1.9 percent against the yen, on track for its biggest decline since February 2007, as investors' willingness to take risks evaporated. "It's a pure flight to quality right now," said Adam Donaldson, head debt strategist at Australia's Commonwealth Bank. "The big concern is how Lehman and other banks unwind their credit default contracts," he added. "Nobody knows how that will play out. While a lack of confidence felled Lehman, a lack of short-term funding was hurting one of the world's largest insurers American International Group Inc. The firm was asking the Federal Reserve for a bridge loan of $40 billion, according to the New York Times, an unprecedented move that further battered the dollar and knocked down two-year U.S. government debt yields to a five-month low.
Fed keeps rates on hold, Dollar rises
September 16
2008 18:30 GMT
NEW YORK (Reuters) --The U.S. Federal Reserve left the Fed Funds rate unchanged at 2 percent. However, the FOMC statement released after the rate decision was less dovish than expected and the U.S. dollar rallied against the world’s most heavily traded currencies. In fact, despite the recent turmoil in the world’s financial markets, the Fed is still very concerned in anchoring inflation expectations to promote price stability. The Fed Expressed Deep Concern About the Recent Credit Crunch. Despite the unanimous vote to keep rates on hold, the U.S. Federal Reserve is concerned that the recent events in today's very volatile financial markets may have second round effects in the rest of the economy and push the United States into a much deeper recession. "Strains in financial markets have increased significantly and labor markets have weakened further", the Fed said. Indeed, earlier in the day, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced an injection of 70 billion dollars in repurchase agreements to ensure market liquidity and avert a violent credit crunch by having banks to lend to each other. In fact, money markets have been in considerable stress after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the acquisition or Merrill Lynch by Bank of America and rumors that AIG, one of the world’s largest insurance firms, could run out of cash. The next FOMC meeting is on October 29 and there is a 58.2 percent probability the Federal Reserve will cut rates by at least 25 bps, according to Fed Funds futures.
Oil falls to new 5-month lows, awaits OPEC
September 10
2008 10:30 GMT
LONDON (Reuters) -- Oil prices fell to a new five-month low on Tuesday, pressured by a rise in the U.S. dollar and expectations that OPEC will not cut output when it meets later in the day. U.S. crude for October delivery was down $1.39 a barrel at $104.95 by 5:31 a.m. EDT, after briefly falling more than $2 to touch a new five-month low of $104.23 a barrel. London Brent crude was $1.41 down at $102.03 a barrel, closing in on the $100 mark.The dollar's rise to a one-year peak against a basket of currencies has spurred a shift away from commodities that has driven down prices across the spectrum. Oil is under pressure despite the potential threat from Hurricane Ike, which is headed towards the U.S. Gulf and offshore oil fields that produce a quarter of U.S. oil and 15 percent of its natural gas. "If it weren't for the hurricanes, oil should be below $100 a barrel, considering the sentiment," said Tetsu Emori, fund manager at Astmax Co Ltd. Oil has fallen nearly 30 percent from a record peak of $147.27 a barrel on July 11, depressed partly by a fall in demand from the world's top energy consumer the United States, where the economy is battling to ward off recession. Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have expressed concern about rising oil supplies, but are not expected to go as far as agreeing to cut output. Ali al-Naimi, oil minister from Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter, said oil markets were fairly well balanced.
Dollar
backs off from highs as jobs data loom
September 5
2008 10:30 GMT
NEW YORK (Reuters) --The dollar slipped on Friday from highs this week against many major currencies ahead of the August U.S. employment report, while an exodus from riskier bets such as leveraged carry trades amid a sharp fall in stock markets boosted the yen. Escalating worries about global economic growth spooked investors and led to a 3 percent slide on Wall Street on Thursday, a sell off followed in Asia and early European trading. Market players said investors were bailing out of leveraged carry trades, or positions funded by borrowing yen at low rates to buy higher yielding currencies and commodities. This trading pattern has until recently boosted the dollar too, as U.S. investors liquidate holdings of foreign assets and repatriate the funds back home. But two reports Thursday on the U.S. labor market reignited fears tightening credit conditions will herald another wave of economic weakness. All eyes now are fixed on the U.S. non-farm payrolls report at 8:30 a.m. EDT. "There's still clearly an axe (desire) to buy dollars," said Peter Frank, currency strategist at Societe Generale in London, noting the "stunningly strong" build up of bets in favor of the dollar in recent weeks. "But some of those excessive speculative long positions could be unwound and we have a sharp dollar sell-off. It could be only one day, but it's a short term risk," especially if the employment report is gloomier than forecast. At 3:45 a.m. EDT the euro was up a quarter of a percent on the day against the dollar at $1.4285, having traded at a pos-October 2007 low of $1.4215 on Thursday.
Dollar at 10 months high,
Oil tumbles below $109 as Gustav concerns recede
September 3
2008 10:30 GMT
NEW YORK
(Reuters) --Oil plunged almost $3 a barrel on Tuesday to
its lowest since mid-April, extending the previous day's
rout on initial signs that a weakened Hurricane Gustav
spared major Gulf oil facilities. Early checks by some
U.S. refiners reported no damage from Gustav, which
weakened to Category 2 before roaring ashore near Port
Fourchon, Louisiana, on Monday. At least two others were
expected to dip into the U.S. Strategic Petroleum
Reserve, helping ensure steady gasoline and diesel
supplies. U.S. crude fell to $108.55 a barrel by 2:47
a.m. EDT, extending Monday's $4 slide to stand almost $3
below trading levels late on Monday and down almost $7
from Friday's close as traders discounted Gustav, which
had been called the biggest threat to the sector since
2005's devastation. Because of the U.S. public holiday a
day ago, the New York Mercantile Exchange did not issue
any official settlement prices. London Brent crude fell
$1.86 or 1.7 percent to $107.55. With Gustav now just a
tropical storm as it churns further inland, energy
companies were starting to assess the potential damage
as they looked to restart the 1.3 million barrels per
day of offshore oil production and over 2.1 million bpd
of refining throughput that was shut ahead of the storm.
The dollar jumped to a 10-month peak against a basket of currencies on Tuesday, with the sharp drop in oil prices giving a boost just as investors keep dumping European currencies on a souring global growth outlook. The dollar index, a gauge of its performance against six major currencies, climbed 0.8 percent to a high of 77.881, breaking chart resistance at 77.85. The move came as the euro slid 0.4 percent to a seven-month low of $1.4541 and hit a five-month low against the yen at 157.12 yen.
Oil
near $120
as Gustav threatens U.S. Gulf, Dollar pares losses
September 2
2008 16:15 GMT
NEW YORK (Reuters) --Oil
briefly touched $120 a barrel on
Thursday, its fourth day of
gains, boosted by the threat of
damage to U.S. oil installations
from Tropical Storm Gustav. The
storm is forecast to reach
hurricane status as it
approaches the Gulf of Mexico,
home to a quarter of U.S. crude
oil production and 15 percent of
its natural gas output. U.S.
crude oil for October delivery
was up 95 cents at $119.10 a
barrel by 9:50 a.m. EDT. It
reached an intraday high of
$120.50 a barrel. London Brent
crude was up $1.01 at $117.23 a
barrel. "Gustav...is on track to
pose a sizeable threat to both
upstream and downstream
production capacity," Thomas
Stenvoll, energy strategist at
UBS, said in a research note.
"The impact of Gustav on the
downstream sector could be felt
more acutely -- at least in the
short term -- as there is no
U.S. government inventory that
can be released." The
International Energy Agency has
said it is ready to release
strategic oil stocks if needed.
The agency, adviser on energy
issues to 27 industrialized
countries, released oil product
stocks in 2005 after Hurricane
Katrina. Gustav is forecast to
hit the U.S. Gulf Coast around
Monday and will be the first
major hurricane to threaten U.S.
energy installations since
hurricanes Katrina and Rita in
2005.
The U.S. dollar pared losses
against the euro and yen on
Thursday after data showed the
U.S. economy expanded at a
stronger-than-first-thought 3.3
percent annual rate in the
second quarter. The dollar was
last trading at 109.46 yen, down
0.1 percent on the day, from
109.25 yen before the release of
the data. The euro was at 1.4739
from 1.4765 before the report.
Oil
rallies to $117 on hurricane fears, Confidence jumps
August 26
2008 15:30 GMT
NEW YORK (Reuters) --Oil
rose nearly $2 to around $117 a barrel on Tuesday, as
concerns grew about possible disruption to U.S. offshore
oil and gas output from a strengthening Hurricane
Gustav. The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Gustav,
a category one hurricane, had strengthened slightly in
the central Caribbean as it churned toward southwestern
Haiti. Weather models showed it either heading in a
westerly direction toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or
steering northwest and moving into the central Gulf of
Mexico by early Sunday, to potentially disrupt offshore
oil and gas production. U.S. crude, which fell more than
$2 earlier in the session, was $1.86 higher at $116.97
by 10:44 a.m. EDT. London Brent crude rose $1.59 to
$115.62. Eric Wilhelm, a senior meteorologist at
AccuWeather Inc, said Hurricane Gustav may threaten
production areas off the coasts of Louisiana and Texas
by the middle of next week by which time the storm may
have gained in intensity to be a major hurricane. "All
of the oil platforms off Texas and Louisiana will
probably be at risk, but that's real long-range,"
Wilhelm told Reuters, adding that Gustav was expected to
enter the Gulf of Mexico by Monday possibly as a
category 3 hurricane. Earlier, oil fell as the dollar
hit a six-month high against the euro on Tuesday after
weak German data highlighted a flagging euro zone
economy. Dollar strength can limit the appeal of oil and
commodities as an inflation hedge.
"Short term trading on oil should now be dominated this
week by tracking Gustav," said Olivier Jakob, oil
analyst at Petromatrix in Zug, Switzerland.
Consumer confidence recovered
far more than expected in August
as worries over inflation eased,
the Conference Board said on
Tuesday. The Conference Board
said its index measuring
consumers' mood jumped to 56.9
this month from July's 51.9,
reaching the highest level since
May. That was well above
economists' expectations for a
reading of 53.0, according to
the median of their forecasts in
a Reuters poll. The 79 forecasts
ranged from 50.0 to 56.2. The
improvement in sentiment came
during a month when oil prices
retreated further from July's
record highs but consumers'
evaluation of their present
situation and the job market
deteriorated further.
U.K. Retail Sales Increased Unexpectedly in July
August 25
2008 11:30 GMT
LONDON (Bloomberg) --U.K.
retail sales unexpectedly rose in July as consumers shunned department stores,
seeking out discounted goods and snapping up mobile phones. Sales gained 0.8
percent after falling 4.3 percent the month before, which was the biggest
decline since at least 1986, the Office for National Statistics said today in
London. Economists had expected a 0.2 percent drop for July, the median of 32
forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey showed. On the year, sales rose 2.1
percent, the weakest since February 2006. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King
said last week the economy faces a "difficult and painful adjustment'' as
falling house prices and rising inflation eat into the earnings of consumers.
Separate figures showed business investment fell. "The weakness in the
housing market and high inflation take a while to feed through,'' said Vicky
Redwood, an economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London. "Retail sales figures
will get worse later in the year.'' The pound gained as much as 0.4
percent against the dollar after the report, trading as high as $1.8707 compared
with $1.8585 yesterday. The central bank said last week that policy makers
placed " a rather greater weight than usual'' on survey data for retail sales
because of the volatility of official figures.
Business investment fell 1.9 percent in the second quarter compared with the
first, sharper than the 0.7 percent drop estimated by economists surveyed before
the report. From a year ago, investment rose 1.9 percent, down from 4.5 percent
in the first quarter, the statistics office said. Other reports suggest
consumers are starting to curb their spending. Sales in U.K. shops open at least
a year fell an annual 0.9 percent in July, the British Retail Consortium, which
represents 80 percent of stores, said in an Aug. 12 report. "It takes a lot to
push consumers into a recession,'' said James Shugg, an economist at Westpac
Banking Corp. in London. "The broader trend in the numbers is still very much
toward weakness.'' German discount retailers Aldi Group and Lidl won more of the
U.K. grocery market in the last three months, according to London- based
researcher Taylor Nelson Sofres Plc. Aldi's share climbed 0.4 percentage point
to 3 percent, while Lidl increased its portion of the market by 0.1 percentage
point to 2.4 percent in the 12 weeks ended Aug. 10, compared with a year
earlier. Today's report from the government statistics office also showed
revisions for previous months, which strengthened gains recorded in May and
further depressed the drop in June. May's gain was revised to 3.9 percent from
3.6 percent. The drop in June now is estimated to be 4.3 percent instead of 3.9
percent. The statistics office said "other stores'' including those that sell
mobile phones, games, clocks and jewellery were the strongest of the five
categories into which overall sales fall, gaining 2.8 percent. Non-specialized
stores, or department stores, suffered a decline of 2.6 percent in July.
Dollar hits
2008 highs, Oil falls below $112
August 22
2008 12:00 GMT
LONDON (Reuters) --The
dollar renewed its broad rally on Tuesday, lifted to its highest for the year
against a basket of currencies by another dip in commodities prices and ongoing
worries about slowing global economic growth. Falling equities, another wave of
concern over the global financial system and tightening strains in money markets
are all feeding the view that the United States will not be the only one to
suffer weak growth and fragile asset markets. Oil fell below $112 a barrel on
Tuesday and metals came under pressure, as concerns over possible supply
disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico were quashed after a tropical storm swept
through without causing major damage. U.S. crude fell 97 cents to $111.90 a
barrel by 0644 GMT, or about 24 percent lower than its peak of more than $147 in
mid-July. London Brent crude dropped 89 cents to $111.05 a barrel. "There is
strong support for prices to drift lower towards $100 a barrel. We are only
about $10 a barrel away, and I won't be surprised to see $105 a barrel by next
month," said Jonathan Kornafel, Asia director at U.S.-based options trader
Hudson Capital Energy. lightens inflationary pressures, thus paving the way for
central banks around the world to cut interest rates. The central banks most
likely to cut rates in the coming months could be those in Europe, Australia and
New Zealand, thus putting downward pressure on their currencies versus the
dollar. But one central bank likely to keep rates on hold for some time, as it
did on Tuesday, is the Bank of Japan, whose base rate remains 0.5 percent. For
euro traders, the next focus is Germany's ZEW index of investor sentiment for
August, due at 0900 GMT. "The strength in the dollar index has little to do with
dollar strength but more the weakness of the other currencies," said Michael
Klawitter, senior currency strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt. "The
market's focus is just very one-sided. At the moment the market has decided to
focus on the weakness of the euro zone and hasn't taken a balanced view of risks
in the U.S.," he said
Dollar rallies, hits 6-month high Vs euro on economic worries
August 20, 2008 14:00 GMT
LONDON
(Reuters) -The
dollar raced to a six-month high against the euro on
Friday, propelled by growing worries about the health of
the euro zone economy and further lifted by liquidation
in commodity markets. The dollar's rally knocked
an already floundering sterling to two-year lows near
$1.85, while the U.S. currency also powered to a
seven-month high against a basket of six major
currencies. "It's not just the U.S. economy that has
problems now, it's clearly spilling over to the rest of
the world, we saw this yesterday with GDP numbers in
Europe ... no one believes the European Central Bank is
going to tighten any more and they're moving to price in
a rate cut," said Martin McMahon, FX strategist at
Credit Suisse in Zurich. Data on Thursday showed the
euro zone economy contracted in the second quarter for
the first time in the common currency's lifetime. "The
dollar has also broken through important technical
levels. The $1.50 area was the base of the trading range
in the past four, five months and now that it's gone
through, there's clearly open space in front and the
question is how far will euro/dollar ease before it
finds support," McMahon added. By 1043 GMT, the euro was
down 0.6 percent on the day at $1.4715, having earlier
touched $1.4700 -- its lowest since Feb. 20. The dollar
was further supported by steep falls in commodity
prices, triggered in part by mounting worries about
weakening global demand. Oil has fallen more than 20
percent from the all-time high above $147 set in July,
while the Reuters-Jeffries/CRB index , a global index of
commodity prices, has slid almost 18 percent from its
July peak. "People have been selling commodities that
they funded out of dollars, so they've been needing to
cover their commodity positions by buying dollars and
that's generated a broad dollar rally," said Chris
Turner, head of FX strategy at ING. The dollar has
rallied across the board, rising more than 5 percent
against the euro this month alone, as investors shifted
their view on the global economy's ability to withstand
the U.S. downturn.
Oil falls below $113 as dollar firms, economic worries
August 19, 2008 11:30 GMT
SINGAPORE
(Reuters) --Oil fell more
than $1
a barrel
on
Tuesday
as part
of a
broader
commodities
sell-off
on the
firmer
U.S.
dollar,
which
countered
concerns
over
possible
supply
disruptions
due to
the
Russia-Georgia
clash.
Worries
over
slowing
global
demand
also put
prices
under
pressure,
after
world
No. 2
consumer
China
posted a
surprise
drop in
July
crude
imports.
U.S.
crude
fell 90
cents to
$113.55
a barrel
by 0632
GMT,
hovering
at its
lowest
since
early
May. The
contract
has
fallen
more
than
$30, or
around
23
percent,
from the
record
above
$147 a
barrel
touched
on July
11.
London
Brent
crude
slid
$1.19 to
$111.48.
"Oil
prices
have
again
sagged
lower
despite
the
potential
threat
that the
Russia-Georgia
conflict
poses to
oil
supplies.
The firm
U.S.
dollar
is
weighing
on the
oil
price,"
David
Moore,
an
analyst
at the
Commonwealth
Bank of
Australia,
said in
a note.
The U.S.
dollar
rose to
a
six-month
high
against
the euro
as
concerns
over the
global
economy
have
kept
other
major
currencies
under
pressure.
Investors
had
bought
oil and
other
commodities
such as
gold in
earlier
months
as a
hedge
against
inflation
and a
weak
U.S.
dollar,
helping
push oil
prices
to a
record
above
$147 in
July.
Crude
oil had
risen
sevenfold
at its
peak
last
month,
after
climbing
for six
years on
growing
demand
from
China
and
other
developing
economies.
But
worries
over a
slowdown
in
global
demand
were
given
impetus
after
China
reported
an
unexpected
7
percent
fall in
July
crude
oil
imports,
the
steepest
monthly
drop
since
January
2005.
Dollar
up on outlook for lower oil, CPI on tap
August 18, 2008 12:15 GMT
NEW YORK
(Reuters) --Asian
stocks
rose on
Monday
and the
U.S.
dollar
hit a
six-month
high
against
the euro
as oil
briefly
slipped
below
$115 a
barrel
and a
view
gained
ground
that the
currency's
long-term
decline
is
nearing
an end.
Government
bond
prices
also
climbed,
suggesting
the
rally in
equities
thinly
covered
darker
fears
that the
impact
of the
U.S.
economic
slowdown
on the
rest of
the
world
may have
been
underestimated.
Popular
trades
such as
betting
against
the
dollar
and
financial
sector
shares
while
also
speculating
on a
rise in
oil
prices
were
slashed
last
week. On
Friday
the euro
recorded
its
largest
single-day
decline
against
the
dollar
in 7-½
years.
However,
the key
remained
the
direction
of oil
prices.
"The
dollar
has been
strengthening
due to a
deterioration
in
economic
data
outside
of the
U.S.
coupled
with low
oil
prices,"
said
Ashley
Davies,
currency
strategist
with UBS
in
Singapore.
"If oil
were to
start
creeping
higher
again in
the
absence
of clear
fundamentals,
it would
raise
the risk
of a
partial
reversal
of
recent
moves,"
he said
in a
note.
The euro
fell to
a
six-month
low at
$1.4908
before
recovering
slightly
to
around
$1.4970
by 0430
GMT. It
has
plunged
around 6
cents in
the last
week.
The
dollar
eased
back 0.3
percent
to
around
109.90
yen
having
hit a
seven-month
high
around
110.40
earlier. On a trade-weighted basis, the U.S. dollar on Friday rose to a 2008 high against seven major currencies, according to Federal Reserve data. Oil prices crept above $116 a barrel on worries that fighting between Russia and Georgia would disrupt energy exports from the Caspian region. Oil hit a three-month low of $114.62 a barrel on Friday. After hitting an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel in July front-month U.S. light crude has tumbled 21 percent on fears about slower demand from developed economies fighting against looming recessions. Gross domestic product data due this week for the euro zone and Japan could renew such fears, particularly with both economies expected to contract on a quarterly basis.
Dollar soars to multi-month
highs, cements upswing
August 14, 2008 15:00 GMT
NEW YORK
(Reuters) --The
dollar surged on Friday, firmly
on track for its biggest weekly
rise in 3-1/2 years as fears
intensified that the U.S.
economic slowdown is spreading
around the world. Most major currencies, including the
euro, sterling and Swiss franc,
fell 1 percent or more against
the greenback, which some
analysts suggest may finally be
emerging from its broad
downtrend that has lasted almost seven years. On Thursday,
European Central Bank President
Jean-Claude Trichet highlighted
the increasing risks to euro
zone growth, Japan's government
said the country's economy maybe in recession, and one
closely-watched measure of
British house prices showed the
biggest monthly fall in July on
record. At 1145 GMT the euro
down 1.4 percent on the day at
$1.5105 , a five-month low and down nearly 10 cents from
its high hit last month above
$1.60. It fell below major
technical support to below its
200-day moving
average
at
$1.5225.
It
hasn't
closed
below
this
technical
level
since March
2006.
The
dollar
rose 1.2
percent
against
a basket
of
currencies
to
75.42,
its
strongest
since
late
February.
It is up
almost 3
percent
on the
week,
the
biggest
rise
since
the
first
week of
January,
2005.
Sterling
slid 1
percent
to a
17-month
low of
$1.9217
, while
the
dollar
gained
as much
as 0.4
percent
against
the yen
to
109.95
yen, its
highest
since
January.
Oil near three-month low on weak
demand, higher supplies
August 13, 2008 12:30 GMT
NEW YORK
(Reuters) --Oil
hovered at a three-month low on Tuesday as concerns over
tight supplies eased amid evidence of rising OPEC output
and declining U.S. demand in the face of a weak economic
outlook. The losses extended a steep slide from
the mid-July peak above $147 a barrel and came despite a
storm in the Gulf of Mexico that was curbing oil output,
shipping and refining. U.S. light crude fell $1.13 to
hit $120.27 a barrel, while London Brent crude shed
$1.03 to $119.65 a barrel by 10:09 p.m. EDT. "The
sentiment is more bearish now than before as concern
over slower U.S. economic growth is impeaching demand,"
said David Moore, commodity strategist at Commonwealth
Bank of Australia. High energy prices have been of
concern in the United States, the world's largest
consumer of oil, already battered by a housing and
credit crisis. The losses came after a Reuters survey
showed OPEC supply rose for a third consecutive month in
July mainly because of increased output from the world's
top exporter Saudi Arabia. The boost in production
from OPEC comes as soaring energy prices and an economic
slowdown cut into energy consumption in the United
States and Europe. "We do expect oil prices to trend
lower in the longer term," Moore said, adding that high
prices in general would only curb demand.
Dollar
rises to five week high Vs euro, buoyed by US data
August 11, 2008 10:00 GMT
NEW YORK
(Reuters) --The
U.S. dollar climbed to five-week peaks against the euro
and three-week highs against the British pound on Friday
as better-than-expected economic data allayed worries
about a much sharper slow down. The yen, on the other
hand, gained broadly, benefiting from heightened stress
in financial markets on news that General Motors had
hefty losses in the second quarter. That dragged U.S.
stocks lower and triggered safe-haven bids for
Treasuries. "U.S. dollar sentiment has certainly
changed for the better over the last couple of weeks,"
said Mark Frey, head foreign exchange trader at Custom
House, a global payments dealer in Victoria, British
Columbia. "The U.S. economy has gone through some
tough phases, but the jobs number was negative, but
still better than expected. I think, more importantly,
recent consumer confidence numbers and leading
indicators, which are more forward-looking, have been
more positive," he added. Friday's data showed that U.S.
employers eliminated 51,000 jobs in July, lower than
market expectations for a payrolls decline of 75,000. A
separate report said U.S. factory activity was unchanged
in July, compared with the previous month, but above
market forecasts. In late New York trading, the
euro was down 0.4 percent at $1.5538 . It dropped to
$1.5514 immediately after the U.S. jobs data, its lowest
since June 24, according to Reuters data. The ICE
Futures U.S. dollar index rose as high as 73.527 ,
building on July's gains, which saw it post its biggest
monthly gain since January 2007. The index, which
measures the dollar's performance against a basket of
six currencies, was last up 0.4 percent at
73.461.Sterling, meanwhile, fell to three-week lows at
$1.9729 . It last traded at $1.9732, down half a percent
from late on Thursday. Following the latest U.S. data,
investors widely expect the Fed's policy-making Federal
Open Market Committee (FOMC) to keep its benchmark
federal funds rate steady at 2 percent when it meets on
Tuesday. The implied chances for rate increases rise
steadily from there to 36 percent in September and 66
percent in October, but the first 25 basis-point-hike is
not fully priced until the January FOMC meeting.
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